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Global Markets-Oil races toward $100 as stocks inch off 3-week lows

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Oil price crash: Oyo gov't to cut 2020 budget, re-prioritise expenditure

…As South Sudan’s president, rebel leader sign peace deal***

Fresh sparring between Washington and Beijing over trade kept world stocks close to three-week lows on Wednesday, while a slight dollar pullback gave little respite to emerging markets, Indian rupee plumbed to new record lows.

Oil prices extended to 80 dollars a barrel as Hurricane Florence advanced and U.S. sanctions started weighing on Iran’s exports.

Analyst said oil should be 100 dollars presently.

The months-long escalation in tensions between the world’s two biggest economies has shown no sign of letting up.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States was taking a tough stance with China. That cemented expectations that fresh levies on Chinese exports will soon be announced.

Trump’s comments came after China told the World Trade Organization (WTO) it wanted to impose seven billion dollars a year in sanctions on the United States in retaliation for non-compliance with a ruling in an earlier trade dispute.

Equity markets also faced pressure from U.S. two-year bond yields which touched a decade peak on Tuesday, partly spurred by data that provided yet more evidence of the U.S. economy’s strength.

That data pushed Wall Street to a strong close, led by tech and energy shares, but futures signalled U.S. shares opening flat. European stocks however firmed almost half a per cent, moving off recent five-month lows.

MSCI’s all-country equity index inched up marginally, looking to extend two sessions of modest gains that had snapped six straight days of losses. But emerging equities retreated to new 15-month lows.

Asian equities excluding Japan hit their lowest since July 2017 after sharp falls in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Emerging currencies stayed under pressure. The yuan slipped to 2-1/2 week lows against the dollar, leading Asian peers lower and keeping the Australian dollar – heavily linked to Chinese trade – close to its lowest since February 2016.

Emerging markets have been the biggest victims of the trade spats and rising U.S interest rates. An index of emerging currencies is down almost 7 percent this year.

Emerging markets’ woes have been exacerbated in many cases by heavy borrowing over the past decade, with Societe Generale analysts noting that “the misallocation of capital following a decade of cheap money is starting to be exposed”.

While the worst hit Turkish lira and Argentine peso have steadied off record lows, the Indian rupee is continuing to plumb new troughs, taking year-to-date losses versus the dollar to more than 12 per cent.

The dollar inched 0.2 per cent lower against a basket of currencies, as hopes grew of concessions by Canada that would resolve disputes over reworking the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Long-dated U.S. bond yields stayed just off the one-month highs hit on Tuesday after data showing sustained strength in the jobs market and the Treasury started a record debt sale amounting to almost 150 billion dollars.

The rise in U.S. yields has hit Italy. It has been one of the bright spots in world markets in recent days, as fears have receded of a government spending binge. But Italian 10-year yields rose two bps off six-week lows.

The British pound also slipped off five-week high hit this week against the dollar, as nascent optimism over a Brexit trade deal with the European Union subsided. (Reuters)

Meanwhile, the South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and rebel leader, Riek Machar on Wednesday signed a peace agreement in the margins of a regional summit in Ethiopia.

South Sudan plunged into warfare two years after gaining independence from Sudan in 2011 when a political dispute between Kiir and Machar exploded into military confrontation.

A previous peace deal signed in 2015 fell apart a year later after clashes broke out between government forces and rebels, forcing Machar to leave Juba.

The new agreement, mediated by Sudan, reinstates Machar, a former vice-president, to his former role.

The U.S., Britain and Norway, known as the Troika which oversees peace efforts, welcomed the signature of the deal by Kiir, Machar and other groups.

“We hope discussions will remain open to those, who are not yet convinced of the sustainability of this agreement,” they said in a statement.

“We must seize this broader regional momentum to secure peace for the people of South Sudan.”

South Sudan’s civil war erupted in 2013, less than two years after it had gained independence from Sudan.

The war has uprooted a quarter of South Sudan’s 12million population, ruined the country’s agriculture and battered its economy.

 

Economy

Subsidy Removal: Ibadan Deserts Stations, Lagos Shocked, P-Harcourt Watches, NLC-FG Talk Deadlocked

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…Nigerians Express Concerns Over Immediate Implementation***

The fuel queue which had created motley crowds of rowdy buyers on Tuesday and the early part of Wednesday in the few dispensing petrol stations, suddenly disappeared in Ibadan, as filling stations changed prices and hiked it to N500 per litre.

A petrol station on the old Ife Road, near the Loyola College, had dispensed fuel earlier at slightly above N200 per litre to grudging customers, until the Station managers received new directives, mandating them to hike their price.

They complied, and momentarily, the queue disappeared, as buyers fled the petrol station. Even those who had claimed that they came into the station with their vehicles on red light, suddenly had enough to drive home.

A correspondent who drove through the city, from Alakia, through Total Garden to the University of Ibadan, observed that more stations hitherto closed for business opened stations, immediately. Only the Bovas had little patronage because buyers could vouchsafe their integrity.

In the meantime, Nigerians have expressed concern over the sudden implementation of subsidy removal in spite of President Bola Tinubu’s assurance that it would not take effect immediately.

In Lagos, it was a matter of shock for buyers as the new price came up. 

On the Ogudu – Toll Gate- Berger axis, Commuters, particularly those on the Inter-State trips, expressed bewilderment, and started slashing whatever litres they had planned to buy.

Some drivers threatened to go back to their Parks, even as several passengers cough out additional fares.

The story from Port Harcourt, was however that shocked buyers simply watched, helplessly. (See video).

A cross section of residents of Ibadan, Oyo State, however expressed their feelings on Wednesday in separate interviews in Ibadan. 

An Entredepreneur, Mr Tobi Adeyemi, said the development was not a good one.

According to Adeyemi, the new administration should have provided some sort of respite for Nigerians considering the enormous hardship being faced by Nigerians.

“This will definitely affect prices of goods and services; from tomatoes sellers to foodstuffs; transportation, increase in fuel price and so on.

“We will all bear the brunt of it together. I only pity salary earners who are on a fixed income. Besides, I don’t believe this is the right timing,” Adeyemi said.

Also, a sales representative, Dr Adeyinka Adekunle, said the previous administration had budgeted for subsidy till the end of June.

“So, to me it was shocking to learn that the removal had taken effect from May 31 based on what the previous administration had done.

“Everything is sort of confusing now because of the budgetary provision for subsidy till June end,” Adekunle said.

He however, said a nation that was going to be great has to go through some teething periods.

In his remarks, an artisan, Mr Akinola Akinkunmi, said he has yet to comprehend the situation, because things were hard already and buying fuel at N500 per litre now would worsen the situation.

Akinkunmi said: “I cannot yet wrap my mind around how my business will survive; we are already struggling to make ends meet.

“With this development and absence of power supply from the distributing company, we are definitely going further down the poverty line.

“We need support from the government; we need help to survive this time,” Akinkunmi said.

Another entrepreneur, Mr Demola Adedeji, said the timing was not right as the economy had been in bad shape for some time now.

“At least, some things should have been put in place before the total removal of subsidy,” Adedeji said.

In his contributions, Mr Yinka Ajadi, a businessman, said that many people would go into depression as blood pressure of many Nigerians struggling to survive the situation would rise.

Ajadi said, “We can only hope for critical intervention at this time such as solving the problem of power and production inputs.”

Meanwhile, the orchestrated meeting between the Federal Government and the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) over subsidy removal has reportedly ended in a stalemate.

The Maritime First learnt that the meeting which was held at the Presidential Villa on Wednesday failed to attract any reasonable conclusion, as parties across the divide stuck to their guns.

It was further gathered that while the Organised Labour was represented by NLC National President, Joe Ajaero, and the President of the Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC), Festus Osifo, and other top labour party notchers.

The Federal Government was however represented by people who included the former labour leader and former Edo State Governor, Adams Oshiomhole, President Bola Tinubu’s spokesman, Dele Alake, the Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited Mele Kyari, and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele.

Specifically, the National President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, Joe Ajaero reportedly criticised the Federal Government, stressing the need to revert to the status quo ante,  because the government failed to either negotiate or protect the Nigerian workers’ interest, before yanking off the subsidy.

The Federal Government on the other hand had argued that the labour had all the time in the world to negotiate with the Buhari government and therefore lacked the moral rights to talk of negotiations now.

The Organised labour therefore said it was going to throw the inconclusive results of their meeting to the Congress whose decision would be final, a euphemism for a nationwide strike.

Consequently, Government representatives called for a rescheduled meeting in a bid to enable further discussions or negotiations.

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Economy

Fuel Subsidy Removal: Don Predicts Reduction In Fuel Price

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Prof. AbdulGafar Ijaiya of the Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, has expressed optimism at President Bola Tinubu’s inaugural remarks on the removal of fuel subsidies, saying this may reduce prices at the long run.

Ijaiya, who spoke on Monday in Ilorin, observed that with commitment from the Federal Government in revamping existing refineries alongside Dangote refineries, will increase the availability of petroleum products.

The expert who however explained that though such effect may not be felt immediately, noted that the present pump price is about N200, depending on filling stations across the country.

He questioned if the present fuel price at about N200 was as a result of the subsidy removal, adding that if it is not, then fuel may likely increase with about 50 per cent rate after the removal.

“But the thing is that very soon, what has gone wrong with the refineries will be corrected and Dangote refineries will commence by July/August,” he said.

Ijaiya, who teaches in the Faculty of Social Sciences of the university, pointed out that in the beginning there might be an increase in the prices of foods and services.

He however asserted that in a society like Nigeria where people are used to hike in prices, it would not mean much to the citizens.

“By Economics principle, we have adjusted our expenditure profile consumption to particular items. We have moved from consuming luxury and unnecessary items to necessary items.

“This means people go for what is necessary and do away with those that are not,” he said.

Ijaiya affirmed that in the long run, the fuel pump price will adjust downward and there would be more supply of the products.

He further added that when there are more supply of a particular product in the market, it will automatically reduce the price.

“If we have enough supply, with time and there are no other man-made distortion that has to do with our behaviour, I see us buying it between N80 and N100 per litre,” he predicted.

The economist also foresee filling station advertising and competing for sales, saying it will be good for the nation.

He, however, cautioned that “we are in an uncertain world”, but maintained that fuel subsidy removal would be good for the country eventually as only a minority are benefiting from it.

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NNPC Ltd, OML 130 Partners Conclude Lease Renewal Process  

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and the Oil Mining Lease (OML) 130 Partners have closed out the lease renewal process for OML 130 to unlock additional value from the Asset for stakeholders.

The NNPC Limited announced the renewal of the OML 130 Production Sharing Contract (PSC) and conversion of the acreage to a Petroleum Mining Lease (PML), in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 provisions on Thursday.

During the ceremony which was presided over by the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Amb. Gabriel Aduda, five agreements were executed.

The NNPC Ltd management, in a statement, listed the agreements to include the PSC between NNPC Ltd and its Contractors, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO) with Total Upstream Nigeria (TUPNI) as the operator.

The agreements include a Heads of Agreement (HoA) Amendment involving NNPC Ltd, TUPNI, SAPETRO, PRIME 130, and CNOOC and a Settlement Repayment Agreement (SRA) Addendum between NNPC and its Contractors (CNOOC and SAPETRO).

Others are Concession Contracts for one Petroleum Prospecting Licence (PPL) and three PMLs and Lease and License Instruments between NNPC, TUPNI, SAPETRO, PRIME 130, and Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The NNPC Ltd said the milestone would pave the way to firm up Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Preowei, amounting to US$2.1 billion.

This will subsequently be followed by Egina South projects lined up by TUPNI and the OML 130 partners to introduce additional volumes to the best-in-class Egina Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) Vessel,’’ the company said.

Stakeholders in attendance at the signing ceremony were the NNPC Ltd Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO), Malam Mele Kyari, the Chief Upstream Investment Officer (CUIO), and Mr Bala Wunti, Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan.

The event also had in attendance the NUPRC Chief Executive, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, Managing Directors of TotalEnergies in Nigeria and CNOOC, Mr. Mike Sangstar, and Mr. Li Chunsheng, among others.

OML 130 is in the deep water Niger Delta, 130 kilometres offshore. The block contains the producing Akpo and Egina fields and the Preowei discovery.

To date, the Akpo field, via the Akpo FPSO, has produced over 646 million barrels of Condensate, while the Egina field, via the Egina FPSO, has produced over 233 million barrels of Crude Oil.

So far, about 1.6 Trillion cubic feet (TcF) of gas has been commercialised from both fields with an outstanding record of non-zero gas flare.

OML 130, currently producing 170,000 barrels per day, is the largest producer in TotalEnergies’ Nigeria portfolio and amongst the most prolific assets in Nigeria.

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