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Ukraine Fears That Putin Will ‘Step Forward’ if Trump Pulls Back

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  • As Europe, NATO hit back at Donald Trump for his ‘obsolete’ comment

It may not get the attention of Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan, but there is a war grinding away in Ukraine which pits the United States and Russia on opposite sides.

Since 2014, Washington has supported the Western-leaning Ukrainian government, which is locked in conflict with pro-Russia separatists backed by Moscow.

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled that he may withdraw America’s support, perhaps as part of a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

During the White House campaign, Trump said that he would look into recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and in July told ABC’s “This Week” that “the people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.”

According to analysts and Putin’s opponents, such an approach by the Trump administration would allow the Russian leader to interfere in internal politics and potentially gain de facto control over Ukraine, something that could have severe consequences for security in Europe and beyond.

“It’s absolutely possible that the Kremlin will try to influence Ukraine more if the U.S. distances itself from the country,” said Igor Sutyagin, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank. “If Trump steps back then that will be an invitation for Putin to step forward.”

The consequences of Ukraine falling back into Putin’s hands could be dire, according to Jonathan Eyal, director of international security studies at RUSI.

“I’m not a great believer in predicting the domino effect because it almost always turns out differently than you anticipated, but there’s no question that the effect on European security as a whole would be catastrophic,” he said.

If he gained control of Ukraine by helping to get a puppet leader elected, Putin would be seen as having “gambled and won,” Eyal added. “He would have also shattered the idea that the Europeans are capable of standing in his way and would open up a gap between Europe and the U.S.”

Perhaps more symbolic would be the creation of a definite divide between two spheres of influence in Europe when “we spent all the decades since the end of the Cold War denying that one existed,” Eyal said.

Ukraine’s current stresses can be traced back to 2014.

Protests and violent clashes broke out in the capital, Kiev, with security forces killing dozens of people in the streets. The demonstrators were angry at their Moscow-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych, ditching stronger integration with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia.

Yanukovych was ousted and fled to Russia, eventually being replaced by the current president, Petro Poroshenko, and his Western-backed government.

The Kremlin refused to recognize this new administration, however, and its forces seized and then annexed Ukraine’s southern peninsula of Crimea. Separatist rebels allegedly backed by Moscow also seized parts of eastern Ukraine, where much of the population traditionally identifies as ethnic Russia.

In the meantime, German Chancellor Angela Merkel led a sharp European response to US President-elect Donald Trump Monday after he branded NATO “obsolete” and said more countries would leave the EU after Britain.

In a hard-hitting interview with two European newspapers, Trump unleashed a volley of verbal attacks on Europe and criticised Merkel`s “catastrophic” decision to open Germany`s borders to Syrian refugees.

With fears growing in Europe over Trump`s commitment to the transatlantic alliance and over signs he will pivot towards Russia, Merkel warned that the continent now had to take responsibility for itself.

“We Europeans have our fate in our own hands,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin when asked about Trump`s criticisms, adding that she will work towards getting the EU to strengthen the economy and fight terrorism.

EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini dismissed Trump`s prediction of further fractures, saying: “I think the European Union will stick together — I`m 100 percent convinced of this.”

French President Francois Hollande meawhile urged the United States under Trump “not to be scared of itself, or the world”. Trump`s latest remarks have in particular caused further consternation among eastern European NATO countries nervous about Moscow following Russia`s annexation of Crimea and involvement in Ukraine.

“I said a long time ago that NATO had problems,” Trump told The Times of London and Bild, Germany`s biggest-selling daily, on Friday.

“Number one, it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago,” he said, referring to its Cold War, post-World War II origins. “Number two, the countries aren`t paying what they`re supposed to pay.”

On the campaign trail, Trump said he would think twice about helping NATO allies if the United States was not “reasonably reimbursed” for the costs of defending them — a common source of friction in the US-led 28-nation alliance.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Europe was stunned by Trump`s remarks on NATO, just five days ahead of the billionaire businessman`s inauguration as president.

“The interview statements of the American president-elect… caused, indeed here in Brussels, astonishment and agitation,” Steinmeier said as he went from a meeting with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to talks with EU counterparts.

Stoltenberg was “absolutely confident” in Trump`s commitment to NATO, the alliance chief`s spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said.Trump however further extended a hand to Russia, which has been hit by a string of sanctions under President Barack Obama over its involvement in Ukraine, the Syrian war and for suspected cyber attacks to influence the US election.

“Let`s see if we can make some good deals with Russia,” Trump said, suggesting in vague terms a deal in which nuclear arsenals would be reduced and sanctions against Moscow eased.

Underscoring the Obama administration`s very different stance, US Vice-President Joe Biden made a farewell trip to Ukraine on Monday to show support for the war-scarred country.

In another comment that alarmed the Europeans, Trump refused to say that he trusted Merkel more than Russian President Vladimir Putin, for whom the next US president has often expressed admiration.

“Well, I start off trusting both – but let`s see how long that lasts. It may not last long at all,” he said.

Trump also directly criticised Merkel for letting Germany admit undocumented migrants, insinuating that this posed a security risk following a wave of Islamic State jihadist attacks in Europe.

“I think she made one very catastrophic mistake and that was taking all of these illegals, you know taking all of the people from wherever they come from,” Trump said, adding he had “great respect” for the chancellor.

Trump went on to threaten punitive 35 percent tariffs on German carmakers like BMW if they build cars in Mexico and not the United States.In other remarks, Trump said Brexit “is going to end up as a great thing”, and he backed a trade deal with post-EU Britain which would be “good for both sides”.

“We`re gonna work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly,” said Trump, confirming he will meet British Prime Minister Theresa May soon after his inauguration on Friday.

The British pound took a hit Monday after Britain said it might undercut the EU economically if it cannot obtain both single market access and immigration controls, with British media warning of a so-called “hard Brexit”.

“Other countries will leave” the EU in future, Trump predicted, largely due to the pressure the bloc was put under following a surge in arrivals of migrants and refugees fleeing war in Syria and elsewhere.

Mogherini however said it was “absolutely clear” that Britain could not start any trade talks with the United States until it leaves the bloc.

NBC with additional report from ZeeNews

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WAIVER CESSATION: Igbokwe urges NIMASA to evolve stronger collaboration with Ships owners

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…Stresses the need for timely disbursement of N44.6billion CVFF***

Highly revered Nigerian Maritime Lawyer, and Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Mike Igbokwe has urged the Nigeria Maritime Administration and safety Agency (NIMASA) to partner with ship owners and relevant association in the industry to evolving a more vibrant merchant shipping and cabotage trade regime.

Igbokwe gave the counsel during his paper presentation at the just concluded two-day stakeholders’ meeting on Cabotage waiver restrictions, organized by NIMASA.

“NIMASA and shipowners should develop merchant shipping including cabotage trade. A good start is to partner with the relevant associations in this field, such as the Nigeria Indigenous Shipowners Association (NISA), Shipowners Association of Nigeria (SOAN), Oil Trade Group & Maritime Trade Group of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA).

“A cursory look at their vision, mission and objectives, show that they are willing to improve the maritime sector, not just for their members but for stakeholders in the maritime economy and the country”.

Adding that it is of utmost importance for NIMASA to have a through briefing and regular consultation with ships owners, in other to have insight on the challenges facing the ship owners.

“It is of utmost importance for NIMASA to have a thorough briefing and regular consultations with shipowners, to receive insight on the challenges they face, and how the Agency can assist in solving them and encouraging them to invest and participate in the maritime sector, for its development. 

“NIMASA should see them as partners in progress because, if they do not invest in buying ships and registering them in Nigeria, there would be no Nigerian-owned ships in its Register and NIMASA would be unable to discharge its main objective.

The Maritime lawyer also urged NIMASA  to disburse the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF)that currently stands at about N44.6 billion.

“Lest it be forgotten, what is on the lips of almost every shipowner, is the need to disburse the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (the CVFF’), which was established by the Coastal and Inland Shipping Act, 2003. It was established to promote the development of indigenous ship acquisition capacity, by providing financial assistance to Nigerian citizens and shipping companies wholly owned by Nigerian operating in the domestic coastal shipping, to purchase and maintain vessels and build shipping capacity. 

“Research shows that this fund has grown to about N44.6billion; and that due to its non-disbursement, financial institutions have repossessed some vessels, resulting in a 43% reduction of the number of operational indigenous shipping companies in Nigeria, in the past few years. 

“Without beating around the bush, to promote indigenous maritime development, prompt action must be taken by NIMASA to commence the disbursement of this Fund to qualified shipowners pursuant to the extant Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (“CVFF”) Regulations.

Mike Igbokwe (SAN)

“Indeed, as part of its statutory functions, NIMASA is to enforce and administer the provisions of the Cabotage Act 2003 and develop and implement policies and programmes which will facilitate the growth of local capacity in ownership, manning and construction of ships and other maritime infrastructure. Disbursing the CVFF is one of the ways NIMASA can fulfill this mandate.

“To assist in this task, there must be collaboration between NIMASA, financial institutions, the Minister of Transportation, as contained in the CVFF Regulations that are yet to be implemented”, the legal guru highlighted further. 

He urged the agency to create the right environment for its stakeholders to build on and engender the needed capacities to fill the gaps; and ensure that steps are being taken to solve the challenges being faced by stakeholders.

“Lastly, which is the main reason why we are all here, cessation of ministerial waivers on some cabotage requirements, which I believe is worth applause in favour of NIMASA. 

“This is because it appears that the readiness to obtain/grant waivers had made some of the vessels and their owners engaged in cabotage trade, to become complacent and indifferent in quickly ensuring that they updated their capacities, so as not to require the waivers. 

“The cessation of waivers is a way of forcing the relevant stakeholders of the maritime sector, to find workable solutions within, for maritime development and fill the gaps in the local capacities in 100% Nigerian crewing, ship ownership, and ship building, that had necessitated the existence of the waivers since about 15 years ago, when the Cabotage Act came into being. 

“However, NIMASA must ensure that the right environment is provided for its stakeholders to build and possess the needed capacities to fill the gaps; and ensure that steps are being taken to solve the challenges being faced by stakeholders. Or better still, that they are solved within the next 5 years of its intention to stop granting waivers”, he further explained. 

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Breaking News: The Funeral Rites of Matriarch C. Ogbeifun is Live

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The Burial Ceremony of Engr. Greg Ogbeifun’s mother is live. Watch on the website: www.maritimefirstnewspaper.com and on Youtube: Maritimefirst Newspaper.

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Wind Farm Vessel Collision Leaves 15 Injured

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…As Valles Steamship Orders 112,000 dwt Tanker from South Korea***

A wind farm supply vessel and a cargo ship collided in the Baltic Sea on Tuesday leaving 15 injured.

The Cyprus-flagged 80-meter general cargo ship Raba collided with Denmark-flagged 31-meter wind farm supply vessel World Bora near Rügen Island, about three nautical miles off the coast of Hamburg. 

Many of those injured were service engineers on the wind farm vessel, and 10 were seriously hurt. 

They were headed to Iberdrola’s 350MW Wikinger wind farm. Nine of the people on board the World Bora were employees of Siemens Gamesa, two were employees of Iberdrola and four were crew.

The cause of the incident is not yet known, and no pollution has been reported.

After the collision, the two ships were able to proceed to Rügen under their own power, and the injured were then taken to hospital. 

Lifeboat crews from the German Maritime Search and Rescue Service tended to them prior to their transport to hospital via ambulance and helicopter.

“Iberdrola wishes to thank the rescue services for their diligence and professionalism,” the company said in a statement.

In the meantime, the Hong Kong-based shipowner Valles Steamship has ordered a new 112,000 dwt crude oil tanker from South Korea’s Sumitomo Heavy Industries Marine & Engineering.

Sumitomo is to deliver the Aframax to Valles Steamship by the end of 2020, according to data provided by Asiasis.

The newbuild Aframax will join seven other Aframaxes in Valles Steamship’s fleet. Other ships operated by the company include Panamax bulkers and medium and long range product tankers.

The company’s most-recently delivered unit is the 114,426 dwt Aframax tanker Seagalaxy. The naming and delivery of the tanker took place in February 2019, at Namura Shipbuilding’s yard in Japan.

Maritime Executive with additional report from World Maritime News

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