…As US Commander says: Russian military, modernizing quickly, plans to sell missile system to Turkey***
When India and Pakistan stood on the brink of war in 1999, President Bill Clinton waded into the crisis with personal diplomacy, forceful letters and stern warnings, threatening tough economic action against Islamabad unless it backed down.
But as tensions escalated last week between India and Pakistan, President Donald Trump and many of his senior aides were preoccupied with a high-stakes summit with North Korea, as well as a heated congressional hearing featuring his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.
It was the most serious confrontation between the South
Asian nuclear-armed rivals in decades, but the Trump administration was
effectively a bystander — it did not seek to mediate the standoff as the U.S.
has in the past, several former and foreign diplomats told NBC News.
“The U.S. government doesn’t appear to be engaged on
this issue at a senior level,” said Daniel Feldman, former special
representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan under the Obama administration.
“It demonstrates not only a lack of focus, but how diminished our capacity
is with so many senior positions, across a number of key agencies, vacant or
held by acting officials.”
At the height of the crisis last week, Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, national security adviser John Bolton and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen.
Joseph Dunford made phone calls to their counterparts in Islamabad and New
Delhi, which were important but not close to the type of shuttle diplomacy that
played out in previous crises, former officials said.
In 1999, Clinton worked the phone with both of his
counterparts and helped resolve the showdown. But that was not the case this
time.
“For the first time in over 20 years, Washington was
not an active player in trying to calm down an Indo-Pakistani crisis,”
said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who served on the National Security
Council under Clinton. “The president didn’t talk to the
protagonists.”
Administration officials rejected the criticism, saying the
United States was one of the first governments to condemn the suicide bombing
last month that killed 40 Indian troops — triggering the crisis — and
repeatedly appealed to both sides to defuse the conflict. Pompeo “played
an essential role in the de-escalation of tensions between India and
Pakistan,” speaking to leaders in both countries and his counterparts, a
State Department spokesperson said.
Washington was also in continuous contact through the U.S.
embassies in New Delhi and Islamabad, the spokesperson said, adding:
“While not all diplomacy can be conducted in public view, the United
States will continue to engage with India and Pakistan to de-escalate tensions
through all appropriate channels.”
Washington has no ambassador to Pakistan and it was only in
December that the White House finally submitted a nomination for the senior
position at the State Department that oversees South and Central Asia. Other
senior State Department positions handling South Asia have undergone frequent
turnover, and former officials say the White House has often had other
priorities that have pushed aside the long-running dispute between India and
Pakistan over Kashmir.
Former Defense Secretary James Mattis, well-versed in the
history and politics of South Asia, stepped down in December after clashing
with the president over Syria and international alliances. His successor,
Patrick Shanahan, is a former Boeing executive inexperienced in foreign policy.
“In the past, we’ve been the sheriff in this region.
Now, there’s no one in our police station who’s willing to intervene,”
said Harry Sokolski, a former Pentagon official and now executive director of
the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. “Who is our diplomat who is
going to intervene here?”
At least one U.S. agency had concerns in the past few months
that tensions were rising between the two adversaries. The concerns prompted
the CIA to beef up its commitment to the region, two U.S. officials, who were
not authorized to speak on the record, told NBC News. They offered no further
details.
Other regional experts said while Washington had played a
more limited role, India and Pakistan were not necessarily keen to see the
Trump administration serve as an interlocutor. Unlike previous standoffs, the
Trump White House was ready to grant India the room it needed to resolve the
situation.commended
In the meantime, a top U.S. commander has warned that
Russia’s military is modernizing quickly, and that a possible weapons deal with
Turkey could put the United States in danger.
Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, head of U.S. European Command, said
on Tuesday that Turkey faces significant consequences: If it buys an S-400
missile from Russia, it should be prepared to forfeit the chance of future
weapons or aircraft buys from the United States.
Turkey is currenty in the process of
purchasing 100 high-tech F-35 fighter jets from the United States,
but Scaparrotti said possession of the S-400 would pose a significant threat to
the F-35. The U.S. agreed to the sale, and delivered two of the jets, but
Congress ordered a delay in future deliveries last year.
His warning is just the latest U.S. officials have delivered
to Turkey, a NATO partner, advising against purchasing the S-400. The U.S. and
other NATO allies have repeatedly complained about the purchase, saying it is
not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a security threat.
The impending purchase has aggravated already-souring relations with Ankara,
including tensions over the war in Syria.
“While the United States maintains global military
superiority over Russia, evolving Russian capabilities threaten to erode our
competitive military advantage, challenge our ability to operate
uncontested in all domains and diminish our ability to deter Russian
aggression,” Scaparrotti said.
The S-400, a surface-to-air missile defense
system, “presents a problem to all of our aircraft, but specifically
the F-35,” he added.
During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday,
Scaparrotti told government officials he needs more troops in Europe, in
addition to carrier strike groups, to combat rising tensions.
He added that the U.S. Navy has been sending ships closer
and closer to Russia, including the Black Sea, which is angering officials in
Moscow.
Scaparrotti’s warnings echoed those made by Vice President
Mike Pence last month at an international security conference in Munich. During
his speech, Pence said the U.S. has “made it clear that we will not stand
idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries. We
cannot ensure the defense of the West if our allies grow dependent on the
East.”
Both the United States and Russia pulled out of a major Cold War-era arms pact last month, one that had banned ground-launched cruise missiles with a range between 310 miles and 3,400 miles.
NBC with additional report from Fox News