…As Expert counsels MPC To Leave Baseline Interest Rate At 14 Per Cent***

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, on Sunday, took a swipe at President Muhammadu Buhari, accusing him and “his hatchet men” of running an autocratic  government similar to the administration of the late military dictator,  Gen. Sani Abacha.

Obasanjo stated this in his 16-page statement titled, “Points for concern and action,” given to journalists in Abeokuta.

Nigerians witnessed imprisonment of the opposition and a vicious self-succession plan by Abacha between 1993 and 1998, when the dictator died.

Obasanjo said, “It is clear from all indications that Buhari is putting into practice the lessons he learned from Abacha. Buhari has intimidated and harassed the private sector, attacked the National Assembly and now unconstitutionally and recklessly attacked and intimidated the judiciary to cow them to submission.

“I was a victim of Abacha’s atrocities against Nigeria and Nigerians – high and low.  At the height of Abacha’s desperation for perpetual power, he did not brook any criticism because Nigeria was seen as his personal property.

“You must go along with him or be destroyed.  All institutions for ensuring security, welfare and well-being of Nigeria and Nigerians particularly the police, the military and the Department of State Services were abused and misused to deal with critics of Abacha and non-conformists with Abacha.

“Today, another Abacha era is here.  The security institutions are being misused to fight all critics and opponents of Buhari and to derail our fledgling democracy.  The EFCC, the police and the Code of Conduct Tribunal are also being equally misused to deal with those Buhari sees as enemies for criticising him or as those who may not do his bidding in manipulating election results.  Criticism, choice and being different are inherent trademarks of democracy.  If democracy is derailed or aborted, anarchy and authoritarianism will automatically follow.

“Today, as in the day of Abacha, Nigerians must rise up and do what they did in the time of Abacha.  Churches and Mosques prayed.  International community stood by us Nigerians.

“God of Nigeria is a living God and a prayer-answering God.  Nigerians must cry out to God to deliver Nigeria.  Here again, I have been threatened with arrest and extermination but I will not succumb to intimidation or threats.”

Obasanjo stated that he decided to speak on the state of the nation because he was concerned about the dangerous trend pervading the country.

He however came hard on the Independent National Electoral Commission describing its officials as people of no integrity.

Obasanjo stated, “Democracy becomes a sham if elections are carried out by people, who should be impartial and neutral umpires, but who show no integrity, acting with blatant partiality, duplicity and imbecility.

“For all democrats and those carrying out the process of elections, there must be the red line that must not be crossed in tactics and practices of democracy.

“I personally have serious doubt about the present INEC’s integrity, impartiality and competence to conduct a fair, free and credible election.”

The former President scolded INEC on its performance during the governorship election in Osun State last year, describing the rerun election as unnecessary.

He said, “The unnecessary rerun, if viewed as a test for general elections, would lead people to expect incidences of deliberately contrived, broken or non-working voting machines or card readers, confusion of voters as to their voting stations, inadequate supply of voting materials to designated places, long line to discourage voters and turning blind eyes to favour the blue-eyed political party of INEC because the commission’s hands will be tied to enable the hatchet men and women to perform their unwholesome assignment.”

He urged Nigerians to stop INEC from derailing the democracy through its action.

“The track record of the present INEC is fairly sordid and all men and women of goodwill and believers in democracy must be prepared for the worst from INEC and their encouragers and how to get Nigeria out of the electoral morass that the commission is driving us into. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.  A battle long forewarned does not embroil the cripple nor catch him unawares,” he said.

The former President also called on the international community to resist Buhari’s alleged plan to rig the coming elections.

Obasanjo said, “From available intelligence, we have heard of how Buhari and his party are going about with his own self-succession project.

“They have started recruiting collation officers who are already awarding results based on their projects to actualise the perpetuation agenda in which the people will not matter and the votes will not count.  It is the sole reason he has blatantly refused to sign the revised Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill into law.

“His henchmen are working round the clock in cahoots with security and election officials to perfect their plan by computing results right from the ward to local government, state and national levels to allot him with what will look like a landslide victory irrespective of the true situation for a candidate who might have carried out by proxy presidential debate and campaigns.”

He, however, advised the Chairman of INEC, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, to stand firm and carry out his duties with competence and unbending neutrality.

Speaking on the controversial INEC official,  Amina Zakari, Obasanjo said the woman had  become too controversial a figure to be able to give assurance of free, fair and credible elections for INEC.

In the meantime, a professor of Capital Market, Uche Uwaleke has predicted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) meeting on Monday and Tuesday will leave baseline rates unchanged for the 15th consecutive time.

MPC meets once in two months and has retained Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) (rate at which it lends to banks) at 14 per cent along with all the other base rates including Asymmetry Corridor at +200-500 basis points around MPR, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 per cent and Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent.

“I see members voting for a hold on the policy parameters.

 “The reality is that in spite of the increase in last month’s inflation rate to 11.4 per cent, the MPC is not likely to further tighten monetary policy in order not to jeopardize the chances of the ruling party in the coming elections.
So, in a way, political consideration will be a major factor.”

Uwaleke, who is Chair of the Banking and Finance Department at Nassarawa State University said his prediction is the trend in many countries regardless of central banks’ independence.

“Recall that in the run-up to the Presidential elections in the US, the then Chairman of the US Fed Reserve was accused by Donald Trump of deliberately keeping the policy rate low to favour the Democratic party.

“The point here is that the MPC will be mindful of the current political uncertainties and so will go for maintaining the status quo.”

According to him, MPC will, however, rely on its usual rhetoric of global and domestic factors to support the hold-rates stance to justify its decisions.

On December inflation figures released last week by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Uwaleke said the increment was expected.

“The uptick in the CPI figure for December should not come as a surprise considering that the month is characterized by an increase in the demand for goods especially food.

“It is what I call the ‘Santa Claus’ effect.

“This explains why the rise in the inflation rate from 11.28 per cent in November 2018 to 11.44 per cent in December came from the increase in the volatile food index from 13.30 per cent to 13.56 per cent while the core index remained same at 9.8 per cent.”

He further noted that the food items that increased in price were chiefly those that are usually in high demand during festive periods such as soft drinks, fish, cereals and tubers.

I expect the ‘Santa Claus’ effect to linger into January 2019 which is likely to record a higher inflation rate.
He explained that it will, however, begin a gradual climb down from February or by March this year.

“Expected improvements in food supply, power and transport infrastructure in particular as well as stability in exchange rate given the country’s huge external reserves needed to defend the naira will help the government achieve its single digit inflation target of 9.98 per cent contained in the 2019 budget.”

The Citizen with additional report from Tribune