…As China orders its airlines to suspend use of Boeing 737 Max aircraft***
Theresa May was battling on Sunday night to save her Brexit deal and prolong her premiership, amid signs Eurosceptics could move against her if there is a delay to leaving the EU.
The prime minister’s position looked precarious as she was unable to announce any progress in talks with the EU less than 48 hours before her House of Commons vote on the deal.
One Downing Street insider said the week ahead looked “choppy” as parliament is likely to vote to extend article 50 and rule out a no-deal Brexitif MPs do not approve May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU.
Two former cabinet ministers – Nicky Morgan and Dominic Raab – suggested that her premiership would be in trouble in that scenario, with speculation that Eurosceptics will try to force her out.
To avoid that threat, May will need votes in the week ahead from about 100 Tory and Democratic Unionist party Eurosceptics, who want an assurance that the UK will not indefinitely be bound by the Irish backstop and a permanent customs union with the EU.
In a last-ditch effort to win over the rebels, ministers were discussing whether the prime minister could even offer to name a departure date if it would help the deal to pass, while Philip Hammond, the chancellor, was preparing to offer billions to “end austerity” in the spring statement.
Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, also warned Eurosceptics that failing to back May’s deal meant there was “a risk and a possibility that we end up losing Brexit in the next couple of weeks”.
But hardline pro-Brexit supporters were holding their nerve and insisting they would still only consider backing a deal if Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has changed his mind about the permanent nature of the backstop.
Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, said: “I am clear a change of prime minister would not create an escape from the backstop unless the new prime minister were willing and able to breach international law. And that is absolutely not who we are as a fair-dealing UK.”
To those warning of a threat to Brexit, he said: “The people who would stop Brexit should know just this: what you do, you’ll have to do in public now. Stopping Brexit will be on you, not Brexiteers. Don’t kid yourselves otherwise.”
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, also said an offer by May to resign “would not be enough” and warned that a delay to leaving the EU could cause a backlash amounting to a “Trump moment” among the public.
Many Eurosceptics will oppose a delay not just over fears it could lead to a second referendum but also the likelihood that the EU would increase the UK’s exit bill by billions of pounds.
May was also facing difficulty securing enough Labour votes to get the deal through, despite attempting to woo them with a package of guarantees on workers’ rights and cash for towns across the UK.
If May fears she is heading for a heavy defeat she may pull the vote on her deal and instead hold an indicative vote to show the EU what parliament would accept before attempting another negotiation, but there is no certainty that Brussels would be open to more talks without a change in direction towards a softer Brexit.
In an article for the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a Conservative who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned his colleagues across the parties against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances.
“The framing of the choice is similar to the one MPs were presented with in the run-up to the Iraq war: military action against Saddam Hussein, or the risk of an attack on this country,” he said.
“The prime minister’s version is a similarly artificial choice: her deal, or a chaotic and disorderly exit from the EU that we know will have severe consequences for our communities. MPs are effectively being asked to choose between the frying pan and the fire, in the hope they will choose the former and that will somehow be declared as a victory.”
The prime minister was poised to fly to Brussels in the early hours of Monday if there were signs of a breakthrough but she was still undecided late on Sunday night about whether to make a last-minute dash. She was also wavering over whether to make a statement on the issue in the Commons on Monday.
If May fails to pass her deal, Labour said it was open to working with other parties to secure a better Brexit deal involving a customs union. But the prospect of parliament seizing control of the negotiations has heightened the chance of Tory Eurosceptics attempting to replace May.
Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary who is tipped to run for leader and already has a grassroots supporters group called Ready for Raab, told Sky News: “She has said she is going to step down. I would like to see her able to do that in a way of her own choosing. But the government has found itself in a precarious situation and, particularly if the government extends article 50 or tries to reverse the Brexit promises that we have made, I think that situation will get even trickier.”
Morgan, the former education secretary, also told the BBC’s The World This Weekend that it would be the “beginning of the end” for May’s policy if the Commons again votes down her deal and then votes against a no-deal Brexit and for an extension of article 50.
“I think that her position is going to become slowly less and less tenable as parliament changes the government’s Brexit policy,” she said. “If the votes go this week in a way which means that the prime minister’s policy as she has set out and stuck to rigidly over the course of the last two-and-a-bit years is taken away, dismantled slowly by parliament this week, I think it would be very difficult for the prime minister to stay in office for very much longer.”
She suggested the cabinet would have to “take a role in saying potentially to the prime minister, ‘Actually, things have changed significantly. We think you should think about your position, prime minister.’”
In the meantime, China`s aviation regulator said on Monday it had ordered Chinese airlines to suspend their Boeing Co 737 MAX aircraft operations by 6 p.m. (1000 GMT) following a deadly crash of a 737 MAX 8 operated by Ethiopian Airlines.
An Ethiopian Airlines 737 Max 8 bound for Nairobi crashed minutes after take-off on Sunday, killing all 157 people on board.
It was the second crash of the 737 MAX, the latest version of Boeing`s workhorse narrowbody jet that first entered service in 2017.
In October, a 737 MAX flown by Indonesian budget carrier Lion Air flying from Jakarta on a domestic flight crashed 13 minutes after take-off, killing all 189 passengers and crew on board.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said in a statement it would notify airlines as to when they could resume flying the jets after contacting Boeing and the US Federal Aviation Administration to ensure flight safety.
“Given that two accidents both involved newly delivered Boeing 737-8 planes and happened during take-off phase, they have some degree of similarity,” the CAAC said, adding that the order was in line with its principle of zero-tolerance on safety harzards.
The cause of the Indonesian crash is still being investigated. A preliminary report issued in November, before the cockpit voice recorder was recovered, focused on airline maintenance and training and the response of a Boeing anti-stall system to a recently replaced sensor but did not give a reason for the crash.
Chinese airlines have 96 737 MAX jets in service, the state company regulator said on Weibo.
Caijing, a Chinese state-run news outlet that covers finance and economics, said many flights scheduled to use 737 Max planes would instead use the 737-800 models.
A Boeing spokesman declined to comment.
A US official told Reuters the United States was unsure of what information China was acting on.
The US official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said there were no plans to follow suit given the 737 MAX had a stellar safety record in the United States and there was a lack of information about the cause of the Ethiopian crash.
SAFETY STANDARDS
According to flight tracking website FlightRadar24 there were no Boeing 737 Max
8 planes flying over China as of 0043 GMT on Monday.
Most of Air China Ltd`s 737 MAX fleet of 15 jets landed on Sunday evening, with the exception of two that landed on Monday morning from international destinations, according to data on FlightRadar24.
It did not list any upcoming scheduled flights for the planes, nor did China Southern Airlines Co, which also has its fleet on the ground.
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd four 737 MAX jets landed on Sunday evening and no further flights were scheduled until Tuesday, FlightRadar24 data showed.
Cayman Airways has grounded both of its new 737 MAX 8 jets until more information was received, the Cayman Islands airline said in a statement on its website.
Fiji Airways said it had followed a comprehensive induction process for its new Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and it had full confidence in the airworthiness of its fleet.
“We continue to ensure that our maintenance and training programme for pilots and engineers meets the highest safety standards,” the airline said.
Singapore Airlines Ltd, whose regional arm SilkAir operates the 737 MAX, said it was monitoring the situation closely, but its planes continued to operate as scheduled.
Indonesia said it would continue to monitor its airlines operating the 737 MAX, which include Lion Air and Garuda Indonesia but it did not mention any plan to ground the planes.
Guardian UK with additional report from Zee News