…As May to warn MPs that rejecting Brexit deal would put UK ‘back to square one’***

The Ukrainian president has proposed imposing martial law after Russian forces shot at and seized three Ukrainian navy vessels in the Black Sea, injuring six crew members according to Kiev, in a major escalation of tensions between the two countries.

The seizure sparked protests by dozens of people outside the Russian embassy in Kiev. Some placed paper boats outside the residence while others threw smoke grenades and set fire to tyres piled up outside.

On Monday, Ukrainian MPs will vote on president Petro Poroshenko’s proposal following an emergency war cabinet on Sunday night. Poroshenko said such a move would not imply a declaration of war and was intended only for defensive purposes. The UN security council will also hold an emergency meeting on Monday about the incident following a request from Ukraine.

Sunday’s hostilities began when Russia prevented three Ukrainian navy vessels from passing beneath its bridge in the Kerch strait by blocking the way with a cargo ship. Two artillery ships and a tug boat were subsequently fired on and seized. According to the FSB, Russia’s principal security agency, three Ukrainian sailors were wounded, none of whom were in a life-threatening condition.

The Kerch strait connects the Sea of Azov with the Black Sea. Russia has constructed a $3.69bn (£2.7bn) bridge over the strait following its occupation of Crimea to link the Russian mainland and the peninsula. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, officially opened the bridge in May.

The FSB said its patrol boats had seized the three naval vessels, saying the boats had entered its territorial waters illegally. It was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying the Ukrainian ships “illegally entered a temporarily closed area of Russian territorial waters”. It said Ukraine’s ships were carrying out “provocative actions” and “their aim is clear – to create a conflict situation in this region”.

Ukraine said it had given Russia advance warning of the route its ships – which are obliged to pass through the strait to reach the Sea of Azov – would take.

Russian news agency RIA said the Kerch Strait had reopened to shipping on Monday morning.

In a televised war council meeting with the president, Ukrainian military commanders said 23 sailors had been taken captive by Russia and six had been wounded in fighting, two seriously.

After the president recommended the imposition of martial law, Pavlo Klimkin, the Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs, said it was “likely possible that Russia plans further acts of aggression at seas or on the ground” and said Ukraine must be “ready”.

The vote on whether to impose martial law in Ukraine comes four months ahead of presidential elections that Poroshenko is expected to lose. If Ukrainian MPs vote to suspend normal government, the elections could be postponed.

Martial law was not declared in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 or during the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine with Russian-backed forces.

Poroshenko appealed to Ukraine’s allies to protect his country and stand united against Russian aggression.

Maja Kocijančič, the EU spokesperson for foreign affairs and security, has urged both sides to show restraint and “de-escalate the situation immediately”.

She said: “The tensions in the Azov Sea and Kerch strait have increased dangerously today, after an incident this morning between Russian and Ukrainian naval vessels as the latter were attempting to pass through the Kerch strait as well as subsequent developments, including the closure of the strait for traffic by Russian authorities and reported seizures of Ukrainian vessels and shots being fired at them. We expect Russia to restore freedom of passage at the Kerch strait and urge all to act with utmost restraint to de-escalate the situation immediately.

“The EU does not and will not recognise the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia.”

Donald Trump has not responded to the incident, but the US president tweeted as reports of the incident emerged that the EU had failed to live up to its commitment to Nato and Europe should “pay their fair share for military protection”.

Nato called on Russia to ensure unhindered access to Ukrainian ports in the Azov Sea in accordance with international law, calling for calm on both sides. Spokesperson Oana Lungescu said: “Nato is closely monitoring developments in the Azov Sea and the Kerch strait, and we are in contact with the Ukrainian authorities. We call for restraint and de-escalation.”

A correspondent for Rossiya-24, a Russian state-controlled TV channel, reporting from the Kerch strait bridge said Russia’s tactic with the cargo ship had completely blocked passage under the bridge and that Russian military aircraft were circling overhead.

In the meantime, Theresa May will take the high-stakes battle to save her Brexit plan and her premiership to all four nations of the United Kingdom this week after warning MPs on Monday that failing to back the deal will take Britain “back to square one”.

EU leaders gave their formal backing to the Brexit deal at a special summit in Brussels on Sunday, after more than a year and a half of painstaking negotiations. But they were adamant that there was no plan B other than a no-deal exit if MPs were to reject it in the House of Commons in a “meaningful vote” expected to be held on 12 December.

At a press conference after Sunday’s summit, the prime minister hailed the historic moment as “the culmination of a long and difficult process”, and said she had rejected the “counsels of despair” that suggested a deal was impossible. She refused to rule out resigning if the deal is rejected, saying, “it’s not about me”.However, with a growing number of her own MPs setting their faces against it, and potential Labour rebels falling away, winning the Commons vote will be difficult.

May will gather her cabinet on Monday morning before addressing parliament. She will warn anxious MPs, “we can back this deal, deliver on the vote of the referendum and move on to building a brighter future of opportunity and prosperity for all our people.

“Or this house can choose to reject this deal and go back to square one. It would open the door to more division and more uncertainty, with all the risks that will entail.”

A bid to topple May as Conservative leader, launched by European Research Group chair Jacob Rees-Mogg, failed to gather the requisite support from MPs.

But May has said she believes “with every fibre of my being” that her deal is the right one for Britain; and after a string of cabinet resignations, including those of two Brexit secretaries, her reputation is intimately bound up with the plan.

The foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, conceded on Sunday that getting the deal approved by the Commons looked “challenging”.

Asked if this meant it was possible May’s government could collapse, Hunt did not dismiss the idea. He said: “It’s not possible to rule out anything, and that’s why all of us have to say: what do your constituents actually want in this situation? And we have to work out what’s in the national interest, and it’s all about the balance of risks.”

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, piled further pressure on the prime minister over the issue of fisheries. He warned that unless the UK swiftly agreed that European fleets would continue to have similar access to British seas as today, Britain would have to fall back in the long term on the customs union envisioned in the withdrawal agreement, which was designed as a last resort to solve the Irish border problem should a wider deal not be in place.

May said on Sunday she wanted to “speak directly to the British people”, and explain the benefits of the deal to them – highlighting an end to the free movement of people, “once and for all”

She also pointed to the extra resources her government plans to devote to the NHS, which she has previously claimed – controversially – to be funded partly by a “Brexit dividend”.

May also highlighted the fact that her deal will allow Brexit to go ahead as planned in March, so the government can switch some of its focus to domestic priorities. “The British people don’t want to spend any more time arguing about Brexit,” she said.

“I will take this deal back to the House of Commons confident we have achieved the best deal available, and full of optimism about the future of our country,” she added. “In parliament and beyond it, I will make the case for this deal with all my heart, and I look forward to that campaign.

This direct appeal to the public has sparked suspicion among some senior Labour figures that the prime minister could be preparing to fall back on the unpalatable option of a general election if her deal is rejected by MPs.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said: “This is a bad deal for the country. It is the result of a miserable failure of negotiation that leaves us with the worst of all worlds. It gives us less say over our future, and puts jobs and living standards at risk. That is why Labour will oppose this deal in parliament.”

After endorsing the withdrawal agreement and political declaration following a discussion lasting less than an hour at Sunday’s summit, the EU’s leaders made a direct appeal to MPs to back their prime minister.

“I am inviting those who have to ratify this deal in the House of Commons to take this into consideration: this is the best deal possible for Britain, this is the best deal possible for Europe,” the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said. “This is the only deal possible – the only deal possible.”

Guardian UK